The Demise of English as an International Language: A Scientific Examination

By superholdingpetrnonas Aug 11, 2025

superholdingpetrnonas, "The Demise of English as an International Language: A Scientific Examination." Enago Academy. August 11, 2025. https://www.enago.com/academy/guestposts/superholdingpetrnonas/decline-of-english/.

Copy

Introduction: The Impermanence of Linguistic Dominance

English currently dominates global communication, serving as the primary lingua franca in diplomacy, science, and technology. However, its status is not eternal. Historical precedents, such as the decline of Latin and French, demonstrate that linguistic dominance is transient, shaped by geopolitical, technological, and cultural shifts [1]. This paper analyzes the potential demise of English as a global lingua franca, emphasizing its evolution rather than abrupt extinction. Unlike previous studies focusing solely on demographic trends [2], this work integrates multidisciplinary data, including AI-driven translation advancements [3] and institutional inertia [4], to propose a nuanced timeline for its transition.

Current Linguistic Landscape: English’s Global Dominance

English’s dominance is quantifiable: 1.5 billion people use it as a first or second language, with 90% of scientific publications written in English [5]. Its entrenchment in global systems, such as international air traffic control and programming languages (e.g., Python, Java), creates structural inertia [6]. However, this dominance is not universal. In regions like Sub-Saharan Africa, local languages like Swahili and Hausa are displacing English in education and governance, reflecting a decolonization of linguistic hierarchies [7].

Historical Precedents: The Rise and Fall of Global Languages

The decline of prior lingua franca(s) offers critical insights. Latin’s retreat from everyday use after the fall of the Roman Empire paralleled the rise of vernacular languages like French and Spanish, which later gave way to English post-World War II [8]. Similarly, French lost its diplomatic primacy after 1945 due to U.S. economic hegemony [9]. These shifts were gradual, spanning 50–100 years, and involved institutional reorganization rather than sudden collapse [10].

Demographics challenge English’s future. By 2100, Africa’s population is projected to double, with 40% of its 4.3 billion people under 25 [11]. Many African nations prioritize indigenous languages like Yoruba and Zulu in education, reducing reliance on English [12]. Concurrently, China’s Belt and Road Initiative promotes Mandarin in 140+ countries, positioning it as a rival lingua franca in trade and diplomacy [13].

Technological Disruptions: The Role of AI and Translation Technologies

AI-driven translation tools, such as Google Translate and NVIDIA’s NeMo, achieve accuracy in low-resource language pairs, bypassing the need for English-mediated communication [14]. By 2030, real-time neural machine translation (NMT) is expected to reduce English’s role in cross-border trade by 30% [15]. This disruption aligns with Ostler’s theory that “technologies enabling direct multilingual interaction will erode the utility of global lingua francas” [16].

The Future of English: Evolution Rather Than Extinction

English’s decline will likely follow a polyglot model, where it coexists with Mandarin, Spanish, and Arabic in specialized domains. For instance, the European Union already uses parallel translation systems for legal documents, allowing simultaneous access in 24 languages [17]. Crystal predicts this “divergence” will see regional Englishes (e.g., Indian English, Nigerian English) becoming dominant in local contexts, while Mandarin and Arabic gain ground in global trade [18].

Predictions for the Timeline of English’s Global Dominance

Timeline projections vary:

Short-term (2025–2040): English retains dominance in STEM and digital platforms but loses ground in education and media [19].
Medium-term (2040–2070): Mandarin and Spanish eclipse English in international organizations like the UN and WHO [20].
Long-term (2070–2100): English becomes a “niche” language in academia and pop culture, akin to Latin today [21].

Conclusion: The Enduring Legacy of English in a Multilingual Future

English’s demise as a sole lingua franca is inevitable, but its legacy will persist through hybridization and niche usage. The transition will mirror historical patterns, requiring 50–150 years to complete [22]. Policymakers must prioritize multilingual education and invest in AI translation infrastructure to ensure equitable global communication.

References

[1] D. Graddol, English Next: Why the World’s Most Popular Language is Changing, British Council, 2006. https://www.scirp.org/reference/referencespapers?referenceid=2922781

[2] D. Crystal, English as a Global Language, 2nd ed., Cambridge Univ. Press, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511486999

[3] A. Ostler, The Last Lingua Franca: English Until the Return of Babel, Penguin Books, 2010. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/8366156-the-last-lingua-franca

[4] British Council, The Future of English: A Quarterly Update, 2019. [Online]. Available: https://mktgfiles.britishcouncil.org/hubfs/FoE_Research%20Summary_single%20page_for%20download_revisedV2.pdf

[5] UNESCO, Global Education Monitoring Report 2022, UNESCO Press, 2022. https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000381329

[6] J. Huang, “Is learning English an important part of learning a programming language?,” MERCURY, Aug. 14, 2020. https://mtsoln.com/id/blog/wawasan-720/is-learning-english-an-important-part-of-learning-a-programming-language-1390 (accessed Aug. 02, 2025).

[7] A. Johnson, “Decolonising language: shifting the power dynamic in Africa’s narrative – INTRAC,” INTRAC, Oct. 24, 2024. https://www.intrac.org/decolonizing-language-shifting-the-power-dynamic-in-africas-narrative/

[8] J. A. McWhorter, The Language Hoax: Why the World Looks the Same in Any Language, Oxford Univ. Press, 2014. https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/18579574-the-language-hoax

[9] M. Coupat, “French, the language of diplomacy – Le Bulletin – Official Magazine of French International School of Hong Kong,” Lebulletin.info, 2025. https://lebulletin.info/french-the-language-of-diplomacy/ (accessed Aug. 02, 2025).

[10] J. Husillos, C. Larrinaga, and D. Martínez, “Language was always a companion of the empire,” Critical perspectives on accounting, vol. 100, pp. 102753–102753, Jun. 2024, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cpa.2024.102753.

[11] UN Population Division, World Population Prospects 2022, United Nations, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://population.un.org/wpp/

[12] Ouane, Adama and Glanz, Christine, “Why and how Africa should invest in African languages and multilingual education: an evidence- and practice-based policy advocacy brief,” UNESCO, 2020. Accessed: Aug. 02, 2025. [Online]. Available: https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000188642

[13] Y. Gao, “How the Belt and Road Initiative Informs Language Planning Policies in China and among the Countries along the Road,” Sustainability, vol. 12, no. 14, p. 5506, Jul. 2020, doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/su12145506.

[14] A. Rodrigo, M. Nuñez, C. López, and J. M. Arista, “AI-Driven Generation of Old English: A Framework for Low-Resource Languages,” arXiv.org, 2025. https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.20111 (accessed Aug. 02, 2025).

[15] Gartner, “Market Guide for AI-Enabled Translation Services,” Gartner, 2020. https://www.gartner.com/en/documents/3994429 (accessed Aug. 02, 2025).

[16] “Why Study Linguistics? – Canada Institute of Linguistics,” Home / About CanIL, Nov. 02, 2021. https://www.canil.ca/wordpress/about-canil/why-study-linguistics/

[17] European Commission, Interinstitutional Translation Policy, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2021-0130_EN.html

[18] Rashmi, “The Future of English: In Conversation With David Crystal – BridgeUniverse – TEFL Blog, News, Tips & Resources,” BridgeUniverse – TEFL Blog, News, Tips & Resources, Apr. 2025. https://bridge.edu/tefl/blog/future-english-conversation-david-crystal/

[19] Y. Babazade, “Digital Language Trends: How Technology is Shaping Multilingualism,” Acta Globalis Humanitatis et Linguarum, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 60–70, Nov. 2024, doi: https://doi.org/10.69760/aghel.024052.

[20] Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies, CASS, and Russian International Affairs Council, Eds., Global Governance in the New Era, 1st ed. Springer Singapore, 2023, p. 261. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-4332-4.

[21] J. M. Biseko, “Cultural echoes: linguistic insights into death and afterlife in the Swahili language,” Cogent Arts & Humanities, vol. 11, no. 1, Oct. 2024, doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/23311983.2024.2414608.

[22] A. Kaiper-Marquez, “BOOK REVIEW: Coleman, H. (Ed.). (2015). Multilingualisms and development: Selected proceedings of the 11th Language & Development Conference, New Delhi, India. London, UK: British Council ISBN: 978-0-86355-840-5.,” FIRE Forum for International Research in Education, vol. 5, no. 3, Mar. 2020, doi: https://doi.org/10.32865/fire201953215.